Week 11 - Last Call
The lights pop on at 1:59am and the bartender yells "Last Call!" Little does this dumbass bartender know, that my own personal lights have been on the whole night, just nobody is home.
Imagine screaming "Last Call" to an entire group of people who are so fucked up and are so poorly coached, that they are willing to wakeup with a 6 point loss in the bed next to them.
Imagine screaming "Last Call" to a conglomerate of people who knowingly or unknowingly are going to walk out on an unclosed tab.
Imagine screaming "Last Call" to a fantasy league where there was a record amount of trades done at the deadline as more and more teams push towards a championship.
At the end of the bar night and at the end of trade deadline, we are inebriated. I'm blacking out at the bar and I'm blacking out at the deadline. I don't need some rando dumbass bartender who is likely to take a few extra bucks when closing my tab to scream its time to get out. I likewise don't need reminded that tonight is the last night in week 11 and if I were to make my last move, its now or never.
Instead lets cut the bullshit, just stop the fucking music, turn the god damn lights on, and I'll catch what your throwing.
Fantasy:
Turning the lights on and music off; we have a 7 man fucking race for 6 spots. 6 of those teams made moves that will impact next year while 1 didn't. I am going to skip over the bottom part of the teams (for the most part) and focus on the 7 rats still in the race. I'm going to do my final breakdown of these teams in depth as the trade deadline will be closing tonight.
A couple things I want to make known before I thoroughly breakdown these 7 teams extensively:
1.) A lot of the breakdowns are going to mesh together to some extent. So I apologize ahead of time if this seems scattered brained but hopefully you can still follow.
2.) The NFL schedule is so fucking annoying/dogshit for fantasy. I knew these next 3 weeks were coming but they come at the most crucial time. We have 6 teams on bye weeks in week 12 AND 6 teams on bye weeks in week 14. Because of Thanksgiving in week 13 there are NO bye weeks.
3.) Even though I think this is somewhat a 7 legged race coming down the stretch; I think Lukas and Doug are still spoiler teams.
Example:
I'll never understand a lot of what Lukas does throughout the year in fantasy. I've come to grips with that. But I loved his Chase Brown trade to get Jauan Jennings who had 25 for him (along with a 3rd next year). Keaton Mitchell on the other hand, who I believe he's rostering for the possibility of keeping next year was just insane. Mitchell has been only been active on this Ravens roster for the last two games this season for the Ravens. While being active he has stepped foot on the field a total of 3 times in two games. Nobody and I mean nobody is picking him up if he was dropped for someone else this week. But that's not why I think he's a spoiler team.
Why do I think this is the biggest blunder of the year in fantasy you ask? Well lets get into our breakdown of the 7 teams pushing for the final spot and see why Lukas fucked up his own playoff run by starting with Chris.
Slay All Day - Chris: Before I dive to deep into Chris's team here I want to roast Lukas one more time.
Okay back to Chris. Even though I think Chris loses this week, bringing him down to 7-5, he finishes his season schedule out with Kirk and Alan. Meaning he should end the season at 9-5 and a shoe in to the playoffs. My worry from day 1, blog 1, was this team is very explosive but not sustainable. Adding Breece, who quite frankly is also turbulent to some degree, definitely helps what you had before but is on the Jets and just had a 3 week run of 9.9, 10.5, 12.30. Maybe the best news for him is, his entire starting lineup (in fantasy) has pretty fucking good NFL schedule from week 15 and on. The only hiccup I see is the Ravens do play the Steelers again in week 16 (Zay and Henry). As much as I believe this team to be more explosive than consistent, this cannon is primed to explode week 15 and on with the NFL schedule his roster has.
Final Record: 9-5
Team Wilson - Brian: Currently sitting at 8-3 which is massive and I mean massive coming down the stretch. Before we get into players/trades made. He's got a tough schedule by playing Dustin in week 12 and playing me in week 14. Luckily he's got Will in between in week 13. You might disagree, but I think you lose to both Dustin and myself and finish the season 9-5. Along with your team has a pretty hard fucking schedule week 15 and 16. Lets start with this week. Jordan Love has only been a top 10 QB 2 times on the year and JT is going up against the Lions meaning he is literally useless. I do really like the DK matchup vrs Arizona, Sutton vrs the Raiders, and Njoku (who I suspect is playing) against the Steelers. The conversation has to be had if you even start JT and how do you manage the Chase Brown bye. Chubba and Javontae? Javonate is at a 50% split rate with every other RB in Denver and Chubba is now a 50% split rate with Brooks coming into the fold. You've probably noticed I haven't said anything about Saquon/AJ as this point but I saved it for the end where I want to elaborate on it. I think people are starting to sleep on the Eagles in the NFL in general. The eagles are very, very fucking good and this defense isn't getting talked about enough. The problem I think the eagles have this week is they play the rams, whose defense is horrible, meaning I think the Eagles do the classic go up 14-21 and then just coast out. Which really impacts AJ way more than Saquon. Moving onto week 14 for you. JT/Sutton are on bye week, the Eagles play the fucking panthers which means the entire starting lineup maybe pulled by half, Jordan Love is at the Lions, Chase Brown should have a field day with the cowboys, DK is at Arizona, and Njoku plays Pit again.
Week 15 rolls around and its Eagles vrs Pitt (tough defense), JT goes to Denver (tough defense), Chase Brown goes to Tenn (tough defense), and DK has Greenbay (Tough defense). You've truly got your work cut out for you heading into the postseason.
Final Record: 9-5
Amon the Rise - Dustin: Currently 7-4 and I think going to continue to keep winning as said above. You are losing: Mooney, James Cook, and Tee Higgins this week which is massive. But I think Bucky Irving against the giants and Ladd against the Ravens are the two perfect slide ins. The Lions playing the colts defense in the form they are in now, is basically almost a given 50+ between Goff and Amon. Harbaugh/chargers staff are little petty boys and will run Dobbins against the Ravens till death. I am somewhat worried for the Ajones @ Chicago, the classic Chiefs not even playing Kelce against the panthers, and Tyreek/this dolphins team has done a complete 180 after the Tua injury. Dolphins have flipped the entire offense into a 2-3 step drop quick, underneath offense due to Tua's head and reducing the hits. Which is why back to back weeks your seeing the Tyreek Hill 3 catches 16 yards and 7 catches 61 yards. Along with his injury, I do think if Tyreek doesn't find the endzone you could actually see a totally different version of him to finish out the year.
Doug will try to play spoiler in week 13 but when you have a full healthy/no bye week team, I think you win that also. Rounding out the season with no bye weeks in week 14 and playing Will should net you a win also. Week 15 you do have the Lions V Bills matchup, which greatly impacts your team. I could see that be a million points or I could see and tough defensive battle. I will say your week 16 (win first round or get the bye) is maybe the worst week I could see for your team. Detroit @ the bears in December is way different than in a dome, JK dobbins ahs the Denver defense, and the rest of your team has "meh" matchups.
Final Record: 10-4
Open 4 Trades - Kyle: One win at a time is my mantra going forward. I have the hardest schedule going forward starting with: Doug, then Dan, then Brian to finish out the year. Lets start with Doug. I am out Bijan, Chase, Taysom, Cooper, and Kincaid. Meanwhile Doug gets back Mike Evans. Lets start with the Good: Daniels plays the cowboys, Achane is getting 80% now of the backfield work with the dolphins, Jamo is playing the colts, Connor is playing Seattle off a bye, Pacheco against the panthers, and I think the rams will be forced to throw all day against the eagles which is great for Kupp (hopefully Quinton Mitchell follows Puka). The bad: Brooks home opening is the Chiefs D, Kupp eagles defense, Tank Dell plays a titans tough defense, Worthy isn't consistent at all. Doug has Jalen against the Rams which could be a score fest, San Fran can be run on by Jacobs, Hopkins against the panthers, CD is going to finish out the year as a PPR machine, and Mike Evans is back. Mike Evans with no Godwin is basically WR 1 on the year from this point going forward. Tough game but I think doable and still a win.
Dan week 13 on the other hand is way tougher. Daniels vrs titans good defense, Achane at GB (Miami in cold weather blows cock 2024), Bijan against a tough Chargers Defense, Chase against a tough Pitt defense, Connor at Vikings tough defense. But Jamo at home versus Chicago, Brooks against Tampa, Pacheo against radiers, Cooper I traded because I think he starts getting better and better as the season goes on with the Bills. Win for me here.
Brian week 14. I've already talked about it up top with Brian but on my side of things; I know Daniels is on a bye but he's gone back to back weeks with 9 points and 13 points and I still have put 140+ both weeks. Achane against the Jets who literally cannot stop the run and the fins at home is great, Bijan will struggle with the vikings, Chase vrs dallas is amazing, Kupp vrs buffalo could be another shootout, Lions get the packers at home for Jamo, I have coop against the rams defense, connor at home against seattle, and Taysom hill against the giants. Anything can happen but outside of Bijan against the Vikings I like my chances. Win here also.
If I can get to the playoffs I love all the matchups for my team going forward in week 15 and on.
Final Record: 9-5
Team Danielmiller3639 - Dan: I think you should be thanking god you're playing Will this week. No Burrow, Kyren against Philly, CMC at greenbay, Dj moore against the vikings, Pickens at the Browns, Hockenson at the bears, Nico against the titans, Deebo at green bay, Pollard at Houston, and yadda yadda. I truly don't like any of your players matchups going into this week but Will's team is so bad/on bye week, I think you get the dub. Win for you.
Dan week 13 then playing me has Burrow against the steelers, CMC and Deebo at Buffalo in primetime, DJ moore against Detriot, and Pollard whose back down to 60% carries at Washington. He does have Hock+addison against the cardinals, Kyren against the saints, Nico against the jags, pickens on a steelers offense which nobody knows what will happen, and shakir against the 49ers. I do think I win this game also mainly due to how bad the 49ers look heading to Buffalo in primetime and if Burrow does well against Pitt its 50% chase is also crushing it. Lose against me here.
Week 14 against Doug I think will be tight but you got some good matchups. 49ers at home probably making a playoff push still against the bears. Vikings against that terrible falcons defense. Nico is on bye but youll have Pollard against the Jags, Kyren against the bills will be tough but its at home for their playoff push, and Burrow against Dallas. Doug on the flip side has Najee against the browns, Hopkins vrs the chargers, Jacobs at Detroit, and Jalen against the panthers aka pulled by halftime. Evans and CD have great matchups but it won't be enough. Win for you here.
Going forward I don't see any real scary matchups for your players other than maybe week 16/17 for Nico @ KC and then Baltimore.
Final Record: 8-6
Matt Rows a Hoe - Cody: I am going to be fully transparent here. I think you could be in trouble. Patty Mahomes has had 1 Top 10 QB scoring week on the year. Kareem Hunt's time on the field is done. Tyler Lockett is a WR3 on Seattle now and you have 3 Tight Ends on the bench to fill in the those gaps. Rachaad white at best is getting 60% of the snaps and you have Alan this week, Lukas the following week, and finish the season off against Austin. So lets get into it.
Week 12 bad news: No Drake London this week is a hit for sure, No more Kareem hunt, Mahomes hasn't put up numbers all year, Mixon versus the titans, Kittle whose hurt and now at the Packers, Otton with Evans back?, and Puka against the Eagles. I guess the goodnews is: Ertz and Terry against Dallas, Henry against Miami, White against the Giants. The goodnews for you is that Alan also has a tough couple of matchups here that I think will win you this game. But a random, Devonta smith/Keenan Allen/ Christian Watson/ Jackobi Meyers/Josh Downs can win a game. The goodnews is Tajae and dowdle are somewhat useless and for some unbeknownst reason to me he has Stroud in. I think that changes but who knows. I think this can be a real tight game. I am going to give you the edge though, win for you here.
Week 13: Lets all take a moment and gather around and shame Lukas one more time. I think is a very very winnable game for Lukas but instead he chose to start Keaton Mitchell. Mixon playing the jags and White playing the panthers is like primo matchup galore. But Ertz/Terry playing Tennessee and London playing the chargers is the opposite of primo matchup. I think Lukas walks in your trap house and takes the trap. He's got Nabers and Tracey against the giants, Gibbs is Gibbs, Jennings at buffalo is tough but I think the red hot cardinals will have to put up points at the Vikings which Kyler/Marv will eat (goodluck blitzing Kyler Dan/Flores). I think Lukas takes this one and a lose for you CT.
Week 14: This is the pack up shop and head home early spot for you. Mixon and Terry are everything to this team, and now both are on bye week (Ertz also on bye). Currently on this roster your only other RB is White. Mahomes has the chargers, Puka has the bills, and London is at the Vikings. Goodnews is Otton?/White have the raiders. I think you lose to Austin (getting to you next) and end the year going 0-2. Which isn't great as you lost your 1st rounder next year.
Final Record: 8-6
Pitts n Giggles - Austin: Playing Kirk this week and Alan next week truly helps. You've at this point already read what I think happens week 14. Lamar has been great and will continue to be great until he plays the steelers and or when they are in the playoffs. Swift has been above expectations along with Rhamondre for that matter. Add Monty was huge but the swap of Wilson for Adams makes no sense to me. Bowers has and will continue to be the top option out of Vegas and JJ will be JJ.
Week 12: I think you smoke Kirk. Lamar at the chargers will be interesting and Bowers versus Denver will also be interesting but love every matchup and Kirk is obviously tanking. Win here.
Week 13: Way way more interesting to me. I find this with your team entirely going forward more than other team. You have tough matchups. Lamar has philly, Swift has the Lions, Bowers has KC, and eckler has the titans. I still think you power through and get the dub but not as easy as before.
Week 14: I already above stated I think you beat Cody. BUT I don't think its that easy. No eckler, no Lamar, and no stevenson is tough sledding. But I do really like all the other matchups you got going in that game, that I think get you the win.
The one thing I'll say is your week 15-16 are brutal just like Brian. Swift has Detriot/Vikings, Lamar has the Steelers, Rhamondre is @ Cardinals @Buffalo, Eckler I don't think is going to have 7 receptions a game, Monty has Buffalo, Wilson isn't consistent, JJ has the bears. I think the playoffs are going to be tough tough sledding for you matchup wise but you'll get there.
Final Record: 9-5
Lastly, just to shit on Lukas a bit more. I think if Lukas would have played an actual player against Dan instead of Keaton Mitchell who has had 3 total snaps across 2 total NFL games coming off of IR and won. He has a true and real possibility to win out and going 8-6 having a shot at the playoffs. Making the playoffs means anything can happen and while having an extra 3rd next year.
~ My Brain
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