New Season, New Rankings
Post Draft Breakdown and Rankings
A quick couple of notes before we deep dive into my breakdown and rankings.
1.) Drafting in person is 800 times better than on the line. You get to see what people are thinking in real time and there is a gamesmanship to that. Unfortunately, I had 8 noons and a Jack pull throughout the drafting process so I wasn't paying attention to anyone and was just making sure I got my guys.
2.) People get all up in a tizzy when these come out every year. This is my opinion and my rankings, I know Kirk will be providing one here shortly later on this week.
A little window into how I evaluate drafting and a few tidbits for you to understand my thought process:
- QB's that have legs are > than those who don't.
- PPR receivers are much safer than RB's due to health.
- TE's that aren't: Andrews, Mcbride, Laporta, Kincaid, or Kelce are dogshit.
- Did you pay attention to offseason coaching changes, player changes, and whats being reported.
- Do you have your own tier of players? Every year I tier everyone in the draft to my own rankings.
Chicago Bears - Kyle: I always start with myself and ~shocker~ I love this draft.
Keepers: Jamaar Chase RD1, Devon Achane RD12.
Draft plan: Regardless triple stack receivers to start. At the end of the 4th it's either if one of the top 5 TE's makes it back and or quad stack receiver. 5th round was always a RB and 6th/7th was double up on the IR RB's. Grab the handcuffs is possible later on in the draft with some upside receivers to fill out my 4th flex position.
Love: I love the Chase, Kupp, and Olave trio off the rip. I was worried when Chase hasn't been practicing at all through training camp because of the contract issues. Even if they may be the best player in the world, when a player doesn't practice all the way up until week one they always start slow. The great news is that Jamaar turned up and is back practicing in full as of yesterday. Everyone is all in on this Puca train and I am not on it. Kupp has been a top 6 draft pick across fantasy football for years now. Last year when Stafford/Puca/Kupp were all on the field he still was the #1 target and its being reported from camp he still is. Olave dropping to the 3rd is crazy to me. He is by far and away the #1 target there, Carr was banged up all last year, and they have a new OC at the Saints so its not gonna be the shit show is was last year. Connors was unreal in fantasy when Kyler came back, Kincaid I think will take some time with the offense in Buffalo, but I think is truly the #1 target when it comes to receiving. Should have a boost around week 4-5 with two dangerous RB's coming back, Jamo is on a good offense and has been tearing up camp, Wicks is a flyer.
Hate: I literally just drafted an injured team and then followed that up with players who will 99% also get injured. Kupp, Connors, Chubb, Brooks, Achane, and probably Daniels are like 6 out of the top 6 players I'd say will die. Along with that, I do love Khalil Shakir this year but tagging him up with Kindcaid is basically just all in on one offense which I do not like. Also spending a 6th and 7th while not having a flex player and instead on two guys who will be on IR is a fucking wild move. Lets see if it pays off in a few weeks here Cotton.
Kamel3481 - Will: I hate this draft.
Keepers: Wilson 2nd RD, Monty 8th RD.
Love: Trying to talk myself into anything I may like out of this draft and the only thing is maybe the rookie receivers you drafted. The problem is we have a pretty clear layout of rookie receivers this day in age. Puca being the outlier, but the 3 headed dominant guys coming into the NFL this year are Nabers, Harrison, and Odunze. From there I think it's going to take the rest of the class a few weeks to get their act together IE Coleman, and Brian Thomas.
Hate: I hated your pick straight from the rip. Personally, I think Amon was the clear 1/1 pick. It's being reported in camp Bijan and fucking Allgier are still splitting carries. That makes no sense but that's currently what's being reported. Along with that on the 3rd you went to Kenneth Walker. There is also a new OC in Seattle and his offense is full on passing and not running the ball. So Kenneth who IS NOT a 3 down back (Chardonnay plays 3rd down) in a now heavy passing offense I think is a horrible pick at 3. In my opinion that 3rd pick needs to be a receiver if you are starting out with 2 RBs on your roster. Also look at the grouping of RBs Walker, Jones, Connor, Swift, Najee. If you went a WR at 3, you would have still gotten 1 from that grouping in the 4th. Then on the turn we went Evan Engram and I am such a hater. "But Evan Engram was 2nd in PPR for TE's last year". Hockenson died, Kelce missed games, Andrews missed games, Mcbride and Kincaid were outstanding when they became a major part of the offense. Engram went 3 games over 20 points in the final part of the season is a direct correlation to Christain Kirk going on IR. Look at the points and you'll see. If you're gonna start with 3 RB's id rather the turn be Amari + Scary Terry. Lets also not forget Engram and Brian Thomas will be competing for targets. IMO:
RD1: Amon / Bijan
RD2: Wilson / Wilson
RD3: Deebo/olave/pittman/nabers / Walker
RD4: Cooper / Cooper
RD5: Jones/Connor / Engram
Pick your poison but I like the left.
Cooper Troopers - Dustin: I am okay with this draft.
Keepers: James Cook Rd7, Brock Purdy Rd12.
Love: I've already said I think Amon was the 1/1 and you delivered. You did the opposite of Will and noticed the huge gap in WRs available compared to RBs and capitalized. I like the stack of Higgins, Deebo, and Amon all well knowing you have an RB on your team already. I would have gone Connor over Jones but that's to each their own.
Hate: Hand up I am taking Andrews/Mcbride over Kelce and I am doing that in the 3rd and just drafting Deebo in the 2nd. People forget Andrews is closer in age to Sam Laporta than to Travis Kelce. I think the Chiefs have loaded up on offense adding Worthy and Brown. Last year we saw Travis fight Andy Reid for resting him during the year. Travis could end up TE1 no question, but after last year I got a bit of icky taste in my mouth. Along with that I think McConkey was taken way to early. Maybe that's your guy, but I am going Odunze, Coleman, and Thomas over him. Its a Harbaugh offense, they are running the ball a million times and they showed that by spending the 1st round pick on Joe Alt, while already having a all pro LT. Along with that, I don't understand the end of your draft at all. You only have 2 starting RB's on the entire roster. Like instead of the Doubs and McCafferry back to back. I am at least grabbing one or two of Ford, Dowdle, Dobbins, Allegier and Hubbard. As a guy who draft and full-injury team, having only 2 starting running backs and one be Aaron Jones is scary as fuck.
Matt Rows a Hoe - Cody: Loved the idea, hated the result.
Keepers: Mostert 11th Rd, White 7th.
Love: I think you had a plan coming into the draft, stuck with it, executed it, and got what you wanted. Going a singletary late, even though probably not great, is another starting running back compared to what Dustin did. I also love the Scary Terry and Worthy picks as I think Rashee will get suspended sometime this year. I also like Caleb Williams because I too paint my fingernails/I think he's going to be a good QB just need a few weeks and you can probably trade him off for some value.
Hate: Personally I am so over this Patrick Mahomes in the 2nd round. I think he is a great fantasy QB but I am taking Lamar, Hurts, Richardson, and Daniels over him based on their drafting location.
Let's do a little exercise to show my point: Which QB scored more fantasy points?
Option 1 or Option 2?
Thats right! Jalen Hurts is Option 1 and scored 20 more points (almost a game's worth) than Dak Prescott!! I'll scream it from the rooftops, but a rushing QB will almost always outscore the pocket passer. I think out of the 3 headed monsters in Diggs, Dell, and Collins... Diggs is the one who takes the backseat. Hes a diva and I think he's on the decline. I have no idea but I do think Aiyuk is staying at the 49ers so Kittle is going to have like 4 games where he goes nuclear and the rest score like 5 points.
Unsolicted Dak Pics - Douger: I can fuck with this draft.
Keeper: CD round 1, Mike Evans round 7.
Love: Josh Jacobs towards the middle of round 2 is in my opinion the last runningback I would take that early in the draft. Rumors are he's fat as fuck but truth be told a RB1 (with no backup as Marshawn Llyod is hurt and AJ Dillion is the fatest) on a very good football team is going to give you points. I personally don't like going QB in round 3, but if I was to take one it'd be Hurts. I think Pitts has way higher upside than Kittle and Engram, I am all the way back in on Calvin Ridley and think he's going to a WR2 in value this year, and rounding that out with a monster upside in Ondunze. Grabbing Ford in the 11th as you only have two starting runningbacks I like, as a Chubb owner I hope week 5 he's benched though.
Hate: As a steelers man, I am not a fan of Najee ahead of Jones/Connor. Main reason is: Arthur Smith. I truly think after watching every preseason game, camp reports, and based on his Atlanta stint, is going to mix all 3 of Patterson, Warren, and Najee. Not to nitpick I think Jerry Juedy is ass, I think Watson fucking sucks, and I think it's Cooper -> Njoku -> Juedy in targets for that team. I maybe would have gone another RB even if it's in a split backfield knowing the fact that Ford has a timetable. I don't see a world were Juedy ever starts on a fantasy roster this year IMO.
Team Wilson - Brian: I am okay/like this draft also.
Keepers: AJ Brown RD2, JT RD3.
Love: Another clear; has a plan and stuck to it. I think with this new OC in Seattle, DK is gonna go berserk this year and I'm high on him. I'm not saying like the top 5 guys, but I think could make the top 10. PPR fucking money printing machines in Kirk, Godwin. May not have the explosive explosive games but are almost an automatic 10-point floor. Javonate being the late round back I don't hate. I think it's going to be a check-down city in Denver with the Bo Nix.
Hate: Hate is a strong word but I would have done a few things differently. I am taking Gus Edwards over Javonate 100/100 times, I don't have faith in Dobbins to make it a full year, this team will run the ball 50,000 times, and has a drastically better o-line, QB, coach etc. People forget Njoku was only good because of flacco. I am anti-watson and I know its a flyer TE so who cares.... But I think I would have gone Micheal Mayer. Fuck wait, Brock Bowers. If I am taking a flyer TE this late in rounds I am going with the best TE prospect in like years. I also 10/10 times am going Dak over Jordan Love. Lastly, I know you chose Saquon for the homer pick, but that stack of AJ Brown and Saquon could be dangerous. I am more Pacheo > Kyren > Saquon IF I already have AJ brown.
Jamary-cyle on 34th street - Lukas: Always the weirdest drafts to grade and I always hate it so whatever.
Keepers: Laporta 12th, Gibbs 3rd.
Love: Marvin Harrison to me is basically at his ceiling without playing a game. Not that I hate that just going as like WR8 in fantasy football is fucking wild. Jaylen Waddle truthers unite!!! I was all in on Jaylen this year even when I would have that stack with achane. Everyones recency bias based on last year is what makes him so valuable. "But Kyle Tyreek is there". Waddle finished as WR 7 on the year and Tyreek finished WR1 just two years ago. Do I think they are going to repeat that? I think it's possible yes. Love the pick of Nabers that late in the 3rd. Dan Jones haters will say "can he even get him the ball" I think regardless this mother fucker is going to ball and looks unguardable all the time. Also worth noting is that you snatched up Jordan Whittington aka Puka before week 1.
Hate: Let me start this by saying you are by far and away the most "that's my guy I want him regardless of round" guy of all time. I respect it and it pays off much like last year. The difference last year was you took young flyer players but did the opposite this year.
Round 4: Rashee Rice - He is 100% getting suspended at some point this year without question. He hit somebody with his car causing physical damage and fled the scene on fucking camera. The NFL is waiting for the courts to finish up on if HE GETS JAIL TIME or not... and then will be suspended to all hell. I am taking DK, Terry, Higgins, and Kirk over Rashee. Not going DK is so fucking wild. That 4 man stack all year would be so fucking scary.
Round 5: Kyler Murray - I am like you a Kyler Stan of all stans. When he is playing the game of football he's averaging in the top 10 fantasy QBs. So I am with you, but you could have gotten him 2 rounds later without a doubt in my mind. I know the argument of "My guy" is you'll take him anywhere is true, but that also means you're giving up a ton of value because you reached so high for him.
Round 6: Brian Robinson - Another guy I love this year could have gotten later.
Round 7: Gus Edwards - I love him and I think that's a great pick probably gotten him later.
Round 8: Jacobi Meyers - I mean this is fucking trolling. He would be available two rounds later and Rome Odunze is there. I know you think Caleb is gonna suck and the bears would be the bears. But I am 100/100 times taking Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze pairing over the Gardner Minshew and Meyers pairing.
Basically love the first part of this draft but you and your my guy till death shit confuses me every year.
Joint Per Reception - Kirk: Started behind the 8 ball, ended behind the 8 ball.
Keepers: Aiyuk 5th round, Etienne 3rd round.
Love: I gotta be honest not a lot. Drake London and Andrews are exactly where they should be going and getting QB3 in PPR last year in the 9th round is amazing value. Mixon or Jacobs is purely a tossup so I assume you got your guy out of that pair.
Hate: You put yourself behind the 8 ball with the Aiyuk trade and looking back I think you'll regret it or at least I would.
Option 1 for Keepers: Option 2 for Keeepers:
Kyren 2nd round | Etienne 3rd round
Etienne 3rd round | Aiyuk 5th and give up a 6th
I mean I am going option 1 by a landslide. Aiyuk hasn't signed yet and has no idea what he's going to do. Like there is a good chance walking into week 1 you're starting JSN, Mike Williams, Diontae Johnson, and Drake London? I also am not a mixon believer so that's probably just a me problem. Defintly not comfortable walking into the season with this team.
Team Danmiller3639 - Dan: I like this draft with a few tweaks.
Keepers: CMC 1st, Nico Collins 13th.
Love: Walking into any draft with CMC is already a plus. Idiots think that Blake Corum is going to take the job from Kyren.... Sean Mcvay has been in the NFL since 2017 and has always had a 1 RB system and then promptly ran that mother fucker into the ground. So I love Kyren until he inevitably gets hurt. Remember they gave Cam Akers like 15 different shots at being the headback before they even tried Kyren. I also love the deep flyer on Hockenson... People forget he's like a top 5 guy when healthy now will Sam Darnold be able to support that, probably not. But for a 10th I love it. White, Dobbins, Pollard, and Pickens are also just meh/bland/non-flashy picks but will be decent.
Hate: Personally in order I like Nabers > Pittman > Moore but apparently you don't agree with that. On the turn, you grabbed Tank Dell over Dk which I truly dislike. My prediction is Dell and Collins are the 2 that succeed and Diggs fails, but again same offense. Burrow is a god but again I like Qb's with legs and also one that doesn't have a top 5 hardest schedule in the league. More nit-picky stuff rather than super strong feelings but things I would have changed.
Slay All Day - Chris: I hate this first overall pick so much but am "ok" with the rest of it.
Keepers: Kamara 5th Round, Zay Flowers 8th round.
Love: Allen will be the QB1 barring injury. Just write it in now. I am huge fan of Mcbride and think he will be great this year. I also really like Pittman, again not before Naber but that's fine. For me everything else with this draft screams chalk.
Hate: Pacheo and Kyren are 100 times better than Derrick Henry. Ravens lost 4 starters on the O-line, also have Lamar who is going to eat into Derrick Henry touchdowns, and the Ravens like the entire AFC North have the hardest schedule in the NFL. Kyren outscored Henry last year and played 4 less games.
Drafting Goedart over another receiver was a homer a pick so I get it, but wouldn't have done it.
Pitts n giggles - Austin: I hate this draft and it started before the draft.
Keepers: JJ Round 1, Anthony Richardson Round 14.
Love: I am actually okay with Adams there. Minshew proved he can feed one receiver last year in Pittman and I think he can with Adams this year. Actually also like swift this year. Whether you like it or not the 3 outside weapons for the bears will keep that box empty and give swift some lanes to run. We saw a flash of it in preseason. I do love the Bowers pickup. Thelian in the 14th round is great value and if I wasn't drunk when I drafted wicks in the 13th I would have picked him.
Hate: Both teams that made trades this year I thought were gonna be at the losing end to start the season. I didn't however foresee it being this big of a gap. I know you need a RB2 in Stevenson but then wrapping that with Lamar is fucking atrocious. Jacoby Brisset already has a broken shoulder behind and may not play week one because his starting o-line lost to the fringe NFL player defense and got murdered. Stevenson might have 10 carries for 5 yards throughout the season. After trade for Richardson and then drafting Lamar means you went into the 7th round with literally 5 starters. If you don't trade one of those guys by season start time you're gonna get waxed. Adonai Mitchell is currently WR4 on the colts. Josh Downs got hurt, but Alec Pierce still is taking first-team reps over him. Again, over Odunze, Jamo, literally anyone in the next 3 rounds is better. I do think Adonai could be great later in the year but you don't have time for that because of trading your 3rd round pick. Eckler is old and washed. Don't look up what Kliff said about Brian Robinson.
Rounds 5-8 were a complete shitshow.
Return of the King - Alan: The man with the biggest headstart finishes barely ahead.
Keepers: Tyreek Hill 1st Round, Breece Hall 4th round.
Love: Rounds 1-4 I thought were perfect. I've brought up DK over the Dell and Smith but to each their own. Pacheo was a monster last year and the Chiefs have only gotten better. You have two top 5 guys in straight-up redrafts for the PPR format. But I think that's all I love.
Hate: I hate the rest of your draft. I think Keenan Allen is the loser out of the 3 receivers. Now Caleb maybe able to support them all, but if I had to pick a guy its probably Keenan. Instead of preaching on QBs ill give you a graphic:
Taking Ferguson in the 6th instead of rounding out your flex spot/4th receiver I hate. Instead of rounding out your flex spot with Godwin and or Ridley you now have Christian Watson..... Jaylen Warren is fine but then into the 49ers defense in the 8th round? Thats arguably the worst pick I have ever seen in a fantasy draft. You saying "well my team is already rounded out and finished" when you have Christian watson your 10th round pick starting is insane. Hollywood Brown is out 4-6 weeks, hasn't been healthy in literally years but maybe you're banking on Rashee getting suspended and him turning into some late-season savior? I should note that I don't hate the: Allgeir, Spears, Warren, Dowdle pickups, but all pretty chalk.
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Whew that was a lot and took a lot of time. But finally lets end with our rankings going into the season:
Note: Rankings are going into week 1 before everyone gets hurt and or comeback from injury.
1.) Return of the King - Alan
2.) Team Wilson - Brian
3.) Jamyhre-cycle on 31st- Lukas (Rashee Rice isn't suspended yet)
4.) Uncolicted Dak Pics - Doug
5.) Team Danmiller 3639 - Dan (Just noticed he's starting Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Dalton Shultz if the Texans put up a stinker he may lose by 100.)
6.) Cooper Troopers - Dustin
7.) Chicago Bears - Kyle
8.) Team Kamelsky2481 - Will
9.) Slay all Day - Chris
10.) Matt Rows a Hoe - Cody
11.) Joint Per Reception - Kirk
12.) Pitts n Giggles - Austin
Reminder: Going into week 1, not throughout the season.
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